Entrepreneurs need to see the future, building products and services that meet the needs of future customers. As an investor, you need to be able at least tell when such a vision is likely to happen, and separate those from lovely visions that are unlikely to ever be reality.
Back in the 1940’s, 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s we were promised flying cars in the 21st Century. Back in the 2010s we were promised self-driving cars by 2020.
Progress comes slowly and quickly, and then can stop for a while.
Startups promise hockey sticks but reality is S curves.
Now that you understand S curves, predict where we are for a vaccine that eliminates the common cold.
Let’s jump out of the hypothetical and look at some real world examples of successful and failed startups that correctly predicted the future.
Finally, let’s use these new tools to look out into the 2030s.
The next time you see a startup pitch, step back from the good/bad feeling and think about which part of the pitch were current reality and which were visions of the future.
Videos from 2000
The first time this topic was at The Angel Accelerator was in the inaugural 2000 session. That year the content was a mix between Seeing the Future and Startup Success & Failure.
What does good timing look like?
Let’s look at an example of how timing and luck play out.
When the world gives you a pandemic, make lemonade.
The next time you see a startup pitch, step back from the good/bad feeling and think about which part of the pitch were current reality and which were visions of the future.
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